Actuary Entry Level Jobs, Employment Indeed.com

TIL Divorce data from the US Census Bureau was analyzed to see how divorce rates varied by occupation. The lowest rate was found among actuaries, people who assess and manage risk, and the highest rate was found among gaming managers, who manage casinos and other gambling establishments.

TIL Divorce data from the US Census Bureau was analyzed to see how divorce rates varied by occupation. The lowest rate was found among actuaries, people who assess and manage risk, and the highest rate was found among gaming managers, who manage casinos and other gambling establishments. submitted by pootypie to todayilearned [link] [comments]

Actuaries Take on Casino Games, by Claude Penland for Contingencies Magazine

Actuaries Take on Casino Games, by Claude Penland for Contingencies Magazine submitted by Actuary_ to actuary [link] [comments]

5 Year Streak Anniversary

I saw someone else share their one year streak and figured you all might find my inspirational as well.
Up until age 35, I never ran more then a mile in my life. I just didn't think it was enjoyable to force myself to run that distance (or longer). But after gaining about 70 lbs from age 18-35 I realized I needed to do something.
So my wife and I started running. Over the next six years we worked ourselves up to running a marathon. And I lost about 50lbs of that 70 I have gained since HS. But not being satisfied with my accomplishment, I searched for something else to do. So on January 1, 2016 I started my streak of at least one mile every day.
Overall, it has been a huge positive to my life. I tell people all of the time that it is easier then you think. Getting up in the morning knowing you need to run at least a mile, takes so much pressure off of your life. Get up, run, feel better.
Over the past five years I have been lucky enough to do most of my runs in Florida, with great (hot) weather. But here are some of the highlights if you will.

The best runs during this period were those runs on vacation in new areas. Going someplace you have never been before and waking up before the rest of the world and seeing "everything". Here are some of my most vivid memories

Edit to add...
Thanks for all the love. So here is a little bit more backstory to this.
In my profession (Actuary) we have a professional journal that used to be printed on a bi-monthly basis. Years ago (maybe 2005) they did a feature on an actuary who had a running streak for 40+ years. At the time I was not a runner. But the story has stuck with me. His story was obviously much more extraordinary then mine. I do hope that I could encourage someone to take a similar journey.
submitted by flactuary to running [link] [comments]

[BB] Swoldow’s Big Brother 4

Welcome to the fourth season of Swoldow's Big Brother, where 14 houseguests compete for a million dollars by winning challenges and evicting other houseguests.
MEET THE CAST: - Alix Colburn, 22, Zookeeper (u/IAmWolfNinja) - Andrew 'Drew' Scott-Martinez, 30, Model (u/Twig7665) - Becky Ope, 32, Librarian (u/Rylandoesreddit) - Earl Barrun, 19, College Student (u/KingTyson27) - Huang Ren, 32, Actuary (u/TDSwaggyBoy) - James Morlon, 49, Rock Musician (u/AngolanDesert) - Julia 'Pryce Tagg' Stowell, 24, Drag King (u/Gemini_B) - Lihua 'Dakota' Song, 23, Socialite (u/Pray_The_Gay_To_Come) - Marilyn Yung, 21, Aspiring Broadway Singer (u/blxxdymxry) - Rosana 'Ro' Pierce, 23, Dance Instructor (u/Ripecornball60) - Tania Mason, 27, Elevator Repair-woman (u/dramaking_22) - Theodore 'Theo' Suns, 66, Postal Worker (u/asiansurvivorfan) - Tyler Cullen, 24, Grad Student (u/SilverOwl24) - Zina Allhred, 42, Casino Manager (u/CapybaraWookiee)
THE SEASON: https://brantsteele.com/bigbrothetemplate/r.php?c=WfkG77Wt
GOOGLE DOC WITH WRITEUP: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1y_bLtuil6Xo213QEs98mHK5yh397iROYJqZP6qE5fu0/edit?usp=sharing
Potential All-Stars: Ro, Zina, Drew, Theo, Tyler, James
Potential Second Chance: Tania, Pryce Tagg, Alix
That season was good, but not great. The pre-jury was fairly predictable, with the giant majority targeting the smaller groups, leading to both Dakota and Marilyn, and Huang and Alix going out very early. I do feel bad for Alix as he was nominated 4 times, and I hope he will return. The first two jury votes were also predictable with Becky and Pryce going, but the Becky vote was a unifying vote where Ro, Zina, and Tania team up with outsiders Pryce and Theo to turn on the male-run majority. Pryce Tagg was a very fun early villain who turned into an underdog later on. We then see our first blindside take place where Ro puts up James, the biggest challenge threat, and Zina, who worked the other challenge threat in Drew to save her over James We then see Tania and Tyler both get blindsided by the Ro and Zina duo. Theo is then sent packing due to being on the outs, and he was a really entertaining underdog who survived being nominated five times in a row after both of his allies left before the jury. We then have a dominant final three in Drew, Zina, and Ro and Ro takes Zina to the top two, where her social game got her a unanimous win, making Ro the first winner to play a completely perfect game
Over these four seasons we have established ourselves many great players. For this next season, we will put 20 of these players against eachother to see who wins in Swoldow’s Big Brother: All-Stars
submitted by swoldow to BrantSteele [link] [comments]

My Experience with a Timeshare (Wyndham) Sales Team in Vegas

I'm writing this because the Reddit threads on this topic are outdated and more people should know what I now know about the "new" timeshares. This is what it's like to be on the receiving end of a Wyndham timeshare sales pitch. Here goes:
I vaguely knew what I was getting in to. My girlfriend and I arrived at an MGM owned casino. We get a bite to eat and as soon as we began our exploration of the Casino someone approached us offering vouchers for free play in the casino worth $75. I'm usually hesitant to ever get sucked into something like this but my girlfriend insisted that we do it. "They give it to you for showing up, we'll just say no, I've got friends who did this too, etc." I went along and decided to keep an open mind about it.
We talk to this guy who convinces people to attend this "seminar" for two hours and you'll receive the vouchers, plus a hotel room for a few nights from a selection of locations, plus free breakfast. He insists that all you need to do is say "no, not interested" once the 2 hours are up and you can just leave with your vouchers. Obviously his incentive isn't to sell anything but fill the buses with as many people as possible.
The next day we get on the bus to the seminar location. My initial thought was that we'd all crowd into a room and watch some presentation before given the opportunity to bounce. I was caught off guard when every couple was assigned a salesperson. We meet our salesman and he immediately compliments us, is incredibly impressed by any of the words we string together, and has now become our fake best friend.
We go into the presentation and the speaker does his thing. And everyone here should be aware that much of what he said was true, but his conclusions were abhorrent. He pointed out that in America we do not use all of our vacation days. We tend to waste them. We are also constantly putting off that one trip to our dream destination to "someday", but "someday" never comes. Next, he points out that most people, dying people, regret working so much and wish they spent more time with their families. These are true facts.
But then he concluded by suggesting we should all buy into this program which will allow us to take these dream vacations. It was the kind of sound financial advice you'd expect from someone who would directly benefit from the purchase and would never hear from you again.
I want to note, the speaker was talented and entertaining. He was loaded with jokes, self-deprecating humor. It was funny, but holy shit. Looking around the room were the salespeople with the obnoxious fake laughter. They saw this probably a hundred times. It was creepy. It was surreal. 1/3 of the audience was in on the sales pitch.
The salespeople used every joke as an opportunity to measure the responses on the faces on their paired couple. The speaker would crack a joke and all the sales people would simultaneously throw their back out laughing before turning to the couple they were with to see if they were laughing too.
There were no opportunities for me to speak with my girlfriend without the salesman eavesdropping. The presentation moved fast enough that looking anything up seemed like too much of a distraction. As skilled as they seemed at controlling my behavior, the whole thing was throwing up red flags.
Anyway, the presentation ended and our salesman led us to a table. On the way over there were other couples sitting out in the open with their assigned salesperson. They seemed excited about what they were hearing and excitedly signing papers. It was...weird.
We sit down and the salesman goes through the program in more detail. Here's where I get genuinely turned off. I work in IT, I'm about to finish my bachelor's degree, I don't think I'm a sucker but my love of science puts me at odds with a person who's giving me overwhelmingly biased information. He reiterates all of the great things about this program. He turns to my girlfriend, "what do you think about that?" "It sounds great!" Then he turns to me. "And what do you think about that? Is it something you'd want to do?" And I reply "Depending on the cost, yes, I'd do it!"
Next, he has us estimate the cost of a hotel we normally pay for. Then he asks us how many vacation days we take per year. This is fine and easy math. If the average cost is $115 per night, and you take 10 days, it's $1,150 per year in hotel costs. The "program" (timeshare but they completely avoid the term) lasts 20 years. It's still vague at this part but the salesman insists on focusing on how much we are gonna pay for these hotel rooms over the next 20 years.
Cost per year multiplied by 20 years is 23,000. But that's not the equation they're doing. They're not accounting for interest! Ah! It would be more over that time! How much does it really cost? About $250,000. They estimate that the hospitality industry has an inflation rate of 11%!! Everyone should have it ingrained in their heads that inflation across the entire economy (in America) has been around 3% per year.
He was willing to tinker with the numbers but, generally speaking, we're spending a fuck ton of money on just hotels according to their calculations. And any close observers would note that the number should have been much lower. $1,300×20 years×1.120 = $174,914.99. I could have been wrong in my calculation but their cost estimate was obscenely high.
Disclaimer: As several people pointed out, some of that math is off and I used the incorrect equation (this does not change the conclusions). Here is a better description from a more qualified redditor mowscut:
As an actuary, both yours and their calculators bothered me. No idea where 250k comes from, but your calculation assumes you’re paying the fully inflated price (in 20 years) for every payment. The full value is a simple future value of annuity certain formula which is P[(1+i)n -1]/i where i is the interest, n the number of payments and P the payment amount. This gives 1,300(1.120 -1)/.11~83,000. Which is also a crazy number, but formulaically appropriate.
Then he asks if we have any more questions. Uh, yeah, how much are we talking about here? They never mentioned up to this point how much it costs! But I'm skeptical and the questions I'm asking are things like how do you actually book a vacation? What happens if I change my mind about it? Is it transferrable? The salesman doesn't know the answers to these questions so a higher level salesman comes over. He's very happy to meet us. He loves the outfit I'm wearing. He compliments various other features and, with the limited amount of information I've provided, seems completely ready to compete with the other salesman for the title of my new best friend.
He answers some of my questions but can't provide any documentation to back up his claims. They still won't provide a price but they hand an iPad to my girlfriend to start filling out personal information. I look over and as soon as I see there's a field for the social security number I damn near slap it out of her hands. They were literally going to do a credit check to see how much the cost would be for us! Huge red flag for me. First, the inquiry shows up on your credit report. While that may not be so bad, I want to be informed on making a purchase and at least know a price range before taking that kind of step.
This throws the salesman off. Apparently, no one stops at this part of the process. The head sales guy says it's fine, and offers for us to check out a room which would be the type of room we'd be staying in if we join this program. I still don't know how much this program costs. We go and the salesman leaves my girlfriend and I alone to explore at our own pace.
This is where I frantically looked for the Reddit thread where personal finance gurus say "GET THE FUCK OUT OF THERE, THEY KIDNAP REDDITORS LIKE YOU AND YOUR CLONE BECOMES A SALESMAN". I found a few threads, and they did warn against this, but they were at least a year old and it didn't all seem timely.
I couldn't find costs online either, so I thought to myself "how much per month would I be willing to pay for something like this?" I concluded $45 per month. But I still had misgivings about making a big commitment on such short notice when I couldn't even read anything like a contract. I'd rather go home and read independent reviews so I can be confident in my decision. I couldn't get to that point.
Once again we end up back at the table but this time the salesman has a laminated piece of paper with prices on it! I immediately I see huge numbers and realize why they waited so long to show it. They wanted approximately $130,000 for the total program. It would be $13,000 down to get started, and almost $500 per month.
(Note: when I did the math later, the actual cost we'd likely pay is around what they wanted for the program. But we'd be paying a fortune upfront and have a monthly payment. We could only go to where Wyndham had properties, which was in America or Australia or some islands, but if we wanted to go to Europe it would be through RCI, which cost about $300 per week. That's about the cost of an AirBnB in some locations, so if you're a smart traveller it may not be worth it at all.)
"Would you rather pay this?" The head salesman circles the $174,000. "Or this", he circles the $130,000. Ooga not want pay big number when ooga pay small number instead. I didn't want it. $45 dollars was as high as I'd go.
This is the part where they tried to pit my girlfriend against me in an amateurish attempt at manipulation. First, they go through the list of everything we ever told them about what we liked about the program (before we ever heard a price). They even sneak in a "you should be willing to sacrifice something for it" and gave a few examples like eating out less or having fewer cups of coffee from Starbucks. So I'm telling the salesman that this is way too expensive and once again the head sales guy shows up. He says things like "I thought you said you liked the program? You said it was a 10/10. Are you saying it's not a 10/10? You said you'd be willing to sacrifice for this!" He was getting irritated. Then he turned to my girlfriend and says "it doesn't sound like he's as rich as he says he is". At this point I was infuriated. Best friends don't say things like this to each other. But I held my cool. I looked him dead in the eye and firmly said "I'm gonna pass".
But damn, the manipulation didn't stop and they didn't give up. They leave us alone to fill out a brief survey with a guy who definitely doesn't sell anything. So this guy shows up, introduces himself, and asks us about why we didn't buy it. I was truthful, it was too expensive and I wasn't willing to spend all that for it. I also felt pressured to make a big commitment on something that hours earlier I knew nothing about. So then he offers to sell us a "trial" program. It's a fraction of the price and it only lasts two years. It starts to be appealing, but then it is also limited to certain locations. I ask to see the contract and the guy says "what do you want me to do, sit here and read you a contract"? At that point he gets frustrated and offers to walk us to the exit. It had been 4 hours. We get our vouchers and leave.
Tl;dr: it would have been a bad financial decision.
Edit: There are a TON of stories in this thread from people who have had experiences with timeshares. They are all worth reading!
submitted by Kildragoth to personalfinance [link] [comments]

Economic Symbiogenesis

Visuals
Economic Evolution Thomas J Novak
Disclaimers 1. I wish to contend that Micro and Macro Economics each constitute a hidden branch of evolution. To be clear, I’m not arguing for an analogy, ​I’m arguing each branch is an evolutionary process; and with this comes the mathematical framework needed to scientifically ​objectify success (major goal for every Capitalist). 2. The quantitative aspects are partially rooted in Game Theoretic Evolution. I do not expect this theory will garner majority support or ​understanding. It is only an esoteric theoretical ideal; but it is my hope that this will gradually change until one-day we have a Utopia. 3. The mechanism is voluntary through rational self-incentives. It advocates for a change in perspective for optimal decision making purposes. 4. Dollars and other fiat currencies are still completely necessary. Fiat currency constitutes a valuable technology that eliminates the need for ​bartering, yielding considerable savings in life’s prime asset - TIME. 5. I apologize to the reader in advance for the long essay. I hope it is "worth" your time.
Key Conclusions
Present day humanity is full of capitalists that have the right idea but are missing some key math. This is causing them to behave inefficiently in the context of their own self-interests. Ideal Capitalism is Pareto Optimal and should be practiced by all; and it should lead to maximal economic growth. I also wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades. Key developments are nuclear weapons and the internet. Discussed more in the last section.
Introduction
The "science" of Economics is not yet a science. Don't get me wrong - micro-economics is just about there; but macro-econ is a totally different story. Some call it “The Dismal Science” because it makes many quantitative claims that are inconsistent with empirical data. An example is the claim that John Rockefeller’s fortune could be made comparable to contemporary fortunes by adjusting his dollars for inflation and real growth. In fact only adjusting his hours for real growth does the trick.
In general macro-econ has a zero-sum-dollar-centric structure that does not allow for input of things like maternity and child rearing - two fundamentally "valuable" human activities. Another problem is that planetary-wide risks like war, (and that which is assured by "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD)), are not naturally measurable in dollars.
Some concepts from financial mathematics and science can generalize economic measurements into a co-compatible theory that almost seems too simple to be necessary. Basic results agree with common sense in every way. Some conclusions are so obvious the calculation seems pointless. Others might be beyond common sense similar to the notion that the Earth on which one walks is anything but flat. The former supports credence for the latter. All examples of human stupidity supports a need for all of it.
Ideal Capitalism
Most powers past through present can be thought cold, "calculating”, and self-interested; and most presently embrace association with Capitalism. Paradoxically, human history, (even recent), is a litany of fighting and stupidity and hurt feelings. These are inefficiencies from the Capitalist perspective, so something must be wrong with these “calculations”.
The argument will start with a Micro-Economic exercise intended to provide quantitative framework to measure just how unCapitalistic many present-day capitalists are acting, by unitizing all their actions in a scientific manner. Any Capitalist wishing to maximize their net-worth will be made more materialistically rich simply by maintaining complete indifference about others, understanding the entire picture, and trusting numbers. Wall Street can confirm this is its goal.
“Complete indifference” means precisely 0 concern for anything other than material-self-worth and 100% concern for material-self-worth. Nonzero concern for others, positive or negative, is suboptimal since it distracts from the objective of maximizing self-worth. Footnote 1: “Others” does not include the friends and family category. All intentional altruism can be represented easily by having those individuals' interests summed and grouped together so as to be viewed as part of the Capitalist’s “self-interest”. All reasoning forward is unaffected by how many friends and family are now implied to be included.
The results can empower all decision makers to calculate in the only way possible: with actual mathematics. The numbers will sometimes disagree with intuition; but the numbers will always be correct. The optimal strategy will hardly change except for sufficiently wealthy individuals. The proof can be seen empirically by back-testing the model in history on the domain in which all success is measured: quality-weighted-time (qwt). The definition of qwt will leverage Game Theoretic Evolution and is discussed more below.
Some conclusions may be counterintuitive similar to the way natural selection favored Symbiogenesis; but maximum profit calls for absolute “trust” in numbers above all else - exactly as exhibited in microbial evolution. Any call for “selfless” acting resulting in benefits to others is strictly incidental; and any less is unselfishly selfish in that it renders this inefficient capitalist less wealthy than maximally possible.
Step 1 - Any political bias about aiding others should be deleted. An “Ideal Capitalist” expresses precisely 0 concern for others and what others think - no more, no less. As long as an individual is correctly acting in their own best interests, they are acting as a Capitalist. Contra-positively one can claim to be a capitalist and act inefficiently against their own interests as many “capitalists” will be shown are doing today. I suggest a new term “Maximalist” to mean an Ideal Capitalist and avoid the need for case sensitivity.
Step 2 - Success Spawns Success. What is meant by quality-weighted-time? The definition comes from the only objective arbiter possible: Evolution through Survival of the Fittest. Something is “fit”, or “successful”, if it results in more quantity (Q) or more quality (q), where more quality means it produced more Quantity faster - which renders it more successful. This is The Tautology of Evolutionary Game Theory (The Tautology). For any evolutionary process, quantity is the metric which quantifies success. Quality is measured in quantity per unit of time (q=Q/t). Note that multiplying q=Q/t with t yields Q=qwt: the metric of success that necessarily satisfies The Tautology. Footnote 2: The word “tautology” is meant in the propositional logic sense. No negative connotation should be inferred.
Step 3 - How to connect economics with evolution?
Micro-economic decision strategy for trading time (t) for dollars ($), (or $ for t), amounts to a “phenotype”, (or observable trait), coded for by genetics inherited or mutated, and ideas learned or created. Respectively: - Inherited genetics constrain every rational human to be “risk averse”, regardless of self-perception, because natural selection favored and continues to favor risk aversion. Defined below and proven further below. - Mutated genes are almost never favorable for a human so this case will be discarded (although this force is quite powerful over quintillions of human-hours). - Richard Dawkins creatively postulated ideas to be “memes”: new evolutionarily viable packets of information, subject to selection forces, as they spread from person to person with varying levels of success overtime. Respectively gene inheritance and mutation is analogous to meme learning and creation. Furthermore the economy can be seen as a subsection of the biosphere governed primarily by evolution through forces of selection. The economy evolves through selection of both genes and memes, and memes are more abstract; but this should not change anything about the evolutionary game theory. After all humanity itself is naturally occurring, so Artificial Selection of Genes and Memes can be seen as a more complex extended phenotype coded for by the evolution of genes through Natural Selection. Any argument that “Artificial Selection” constitutes a meaningful difference from “Natural Selection” must first come to terms with the observation that humanity is itself, naturally occurring.
Step 4 - What is the definition of “risk averse”? The mathematical definition of risk averse simply requires diminishing returns to be experienced on assets like dollars. For example: an additional $1M adds less “utility” if you presently have $2B, compared to if you presently have $2M. If a person is not risk averse, then more success encourages more risky behavior. This is inconsistent with the observation that more success means one has more to lose. Therefore any risk-inclined individual cannot be an Ideal Capitalist as they will almost surely go broke gambling.
Step 5 - What is “utility”? Utility is the abstract micro-economic concept that, by definition, quantifies value. The unsettled question of how to actually do this is addressed below.
Total Utility = True Material Self-Worth = “well-offness”. All have one-to-one correspondence with each other. All are “mutually inclusive”. For example: twice the quantity of utility, by definition, means twice material self-worth; and so, the individual is exactly twice better-off. Diminishing returns do not apply to quantities of utility.
Step 6 - How to define an objective function to maximize utility? Per Wikipedia: “Consider a set of alternatives facing an individual, and over which the individual has a preference ordering. A ‘utility function’ is able to represent those preferences if it is possible to assign a real number to each alternative, in such a way that alternative A is assigned a number greater than alternative B if, and only if, the individual prefers alternative A to alternative B.”
Keynote: dollars are not material wealth, dollars buy material wealth, with diminishing returns, limited by genes, memes, and the quality and Quantity of the Marketplace (respectively qQMP).
To illustrate this, consider how rich you would be with $1T cash on Mars in the present day marketplace. Personally as an oxygen breathing Capitalist, I would view my self-worth as constituting a liability - measurable in my personal subjective frame of reference in units of time, weighted by some self-knowable quality of life representing the quantity of misery per hour that I experience dying alone. Presently the quality of the marketplace on Mars is exactly 0 because 0 quantity is available for purchase. Footnote 3: The quality of life purchasable given the Time and Place is shown below to be bounded from above, although it is by no means bounded from below.
Back to Earth. If sufficiently rich, then maximizing material wealth calls for buying everything in desired amounts to maximize present quality of Life (qoL), holding ample dollars in reserve to spend on future qoL (like new inventions) and future quantity (like new medicine), and allocating the rest to increase future qQ which is not presently available for purchase. In keeping with The Tautology, qoL enhancements will provide for faster consumption of Quantity (Q=qwt). Note how perfectly this fits with The Tautology.
Ideally a good Capitalist with sufficient dollars would employ a strategy so as to maximize qoL at every point in time by exhausting most/all dollars by death. Any argument that an individual cannot meaningfully increase future qQMP fails. As an example: a medical breakthrough for genetic predispositions could yield considerably more time for any one capitalist, with expected returns modeled via actuarial mathematics. Consider just how far Humanity has come since the birth of The Enlightenment - it is easy to see how the not-so-distant future may include considerably more qQoL for sale. (Conversely the future may include far less qQoL if macro-decision-public-policy modeling continues to fail to quantify/unitize the cost of war - discussed more in the Macro Economic qwt section below.)
qQ enhancements, although more subjective, can be substantially accelerated by one talented individual. Examples include Albert Einstein, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk. All are responsible for inventing and/or producing new things which I personally enjoy - the qQoL that I can purchase is greater as a result of their work. My time and money could not purchase such things if they were not invented. As discussed next, micro-economic quality weights are quality of Life (qoL) weights. They have an upper bound that can be “objectively” unitized and measured by the self-interested party's own frame of reference.
Step 7 - How can an individual objectively define an upper bound for these inherently subjective quality weights with any mathematical rigor? Is it possible that more dollars does not always result in more utility? Yes!
Proof Reductio ad Absurdum
Ripping off an idea from one of the greatest thinkers ever - I propose a financial thought experiment: pretend it is possible for you to pause all of society and gamble once at the “Name Your Winnings Casino”.
Here you can choose entering into an even bet: 50% of the time you win the largest number of dollars you can mathematically express = $P; or 50% of the time you suffer absolute ruin: the casino takes everything of material value and your dollars and returns you to the real world where no insurance policies exist for you and no friends or family are able to ease your loss by lending a couch to sleep on or pulling strings for a job offeinterview. If you lose you reenter the world a naked homeless person “worth” exactly $0.
Four observations follow:
  1. The decision to bet is made independent of any consideration of others, consistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
  2. Any sane human with the smallest capacity for self-honestly could conservatively estimate a walk-away number A, (denominated in dollars), such that if present “net worth” is greater than $A then no bet.
  3. No rational person choosing to bet would play more than once because either they’d lose or they’d win $P and have received the payout they named. “Letting it ride” constitutes an obviously dumb decision born out of the unwillingness to simply express the larger number in the first bet; however, a risk-inclined individual always values more over what they have and so they would be compelled to keep betting. Therefore rationality is mutually exclusive with risk-inclination. Furthermore if the betting person is risk averse, then $A is strictly less than $P for some minimum value of $P.
  4. Some confident rational individual might argue no such number $A exists for them because they’re so good they can start all over if they lose and earn a new fortune; and it would at first glance seem this individual is correct.
Many logical conclusions result:
A. An honest estimate for $A irrefutably reveals a hidden upper bound for this individual’s “Utility Curve”. Specifically if the function A’($A) = A’ maps to utility derived by $A dollar denominated “wealth”, then no amount of dollars even exists for this individual to choose to bet. Mathematically: “Net worth” > “Bet value” => “Net worth” > “50% times upside minus 50% times downside” => A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) - .5A’($A) => 1.5A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) => 3A’($A) > A’($A+$P) for all values of $P (The left hand-side must be greater or the bet would not be declined by a rational individual.)
B. 3A’ is not presently purchasable with any amount of dollars. 3A’ may be purchased in some future marketplace, (possibly with less than A future dollars), in the form of a medical breakthrough or buying future children birthday presents, but it is not currently purchasable in the present as demonstrated by the individual’s refusal to bet. Conversely A future dollars may lose “purchasing power” of just A’ if the future marketplace is inferior. Therefore true material-worth is fundamentally a function of the marketplace and cannot even be expressed in terms of dollars.
C. Most choosing to bet would logically express the upside payout $P as a sequence of 9s. Many more would know to use powers of powers. Knowledge of Knuth’s Up Arrow Notation could simultaneously save time and yield considerably “more upside”. Due consideration for exactly how much time should be spent writing out fantastically large numbers reveals an irrefutably objective hidden limiting factor: this person’s lifetime - measurable in units of time. This reveals one of two hidden domains on which value must be measured - TIME!
D. From this it directly follows that the confident individual in (4) is wrong. Some number $A<$P must exist, EVEN FOR THEM. However this individual is sure $A doesn’t and keeps writing numbers out for $P until they die. Therefore $A for them equals the number they have written out at time of death, never having played the game. I believe this is the definition of a Darwinian unfit capitalist - completely inconsistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
Analysis
The argument above establishes a horizontal bound for utility – lifetime measurable in units of time. It also establishes a finite upper bound for utility itself (represented by the area of the “utility rectangle” - see spreadsheet). This implies a finite upper bound for the rectangle’s height must exist; and this is empirically supported by the observation that billionaires are not known to blow through their life fortune in any short-period of time.
So why does any sufficiently wealthy capitalist focus on earning more dollars and die before exhausting most/all of their dollars (last death if family inheritance involved)? If sufficiently wealthy, material wealth is necessarily a bounded function of The Time Period, or the “quality and Quantity of the Marketplace”. TTP = qQMP >= qQoL. In other words, the marketplace itself is secretly an asset for every Capitalist!
qMP(TTP) = Max quality of life, or “max utility per hour” available for purchase in TTP QMP(TTP) = Max Quantity of life, or “max utility” for purchase in TTP (IE a longer vacation or medicine)
Thus on the micro level, quality weights are utility weights; and utility weights are capped by The Time Period. Thus it is the case that for every (finite) individual, a finite upper bound for utility is self-measurable in Time Period-Weighted Time (qwt = TPWT). For example: 2020 hours have far more value to any sufficiently rational and wealthy individual (SRWI) than 1920 hours. And as the earlier questionnaire (hopefully) shows, this is realizable by most middle-class people today. In other words, today’s middle class is sufficiently wealthy to the extent TPWT resolves the Rockefeller paradox. Footnote8: The size of the middle class itself is unfortunately shrinking. This has potential to result in negative externalities for all.
Since an Ideal Capitalist maximizes self-material-wealth above all else, then if they were also sufficiently wealthy, they would measure value in Time-Period-Weighted Hours since they would always purchase maximum utility per hour. This is by definition, since any SRWI has all necessary means to purchase max utility available per hour. (Note just how important quick access to true information would be.) Footnote 9: Neuroscience could use Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to objectively measure the Micro-Economic utility unit as “Neurotransmitter-Molecular-Count Weighted Hours”. Consideration for how to weight different neurotransmitters (like Serotonin vs Dopamine) would be necessary. For now, we are all similar enough for “time” to suffice, at least for short run measurements. For example: what is the penalty for severe crimes? “Time in jail” or death (all the person’s time).
Quantifying the Marketplace
Given the average life expectancy now is more than twice that of prehistoric man, the marketplace itself is worth strictly more than 50% of any sufficiently wealthy individual’s “asset portfolio”. Just note “time is money”. Footnote 10: They need not be rational to "realize" this time, so long as their doctor is sufficiently competent. "Realization" will come in the form of living longer, quite consistent with the accounting definition of gain/loss realization.
Keynote - a Maximalist will do more than just maximize present qQ purchased. They will also divert unneeded dollars to maximize future qQMP so that more qQ is available for purchase. Thus the Maximalist calculation includes due consideration for additional dollars that will be needed given future qQ becomes available.
Squaring Theory with Reality
Most already know most of this, at least on the common-sense level. So why don’t sufficiently wealthy Capitalists invest maximum dollars with less strings attached to maximize the future? Is it because that would help everyone else and constitute socialism? No! In this context socialism is Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand”. A good Capitalist aims for precisely 0 concern about others, and any concern for implied socialism would constitute nonzero concern. Such concern would amount to incomprehensible irrationality far beneath any good Capitalist. So what else could it be?
Perhaps it’s simply the fact that much of humanity is still measuring their net-worth in the wrong dimension for the inefficient purpose of feeling superior to others with less money. Anyone currently doing this quite literally knows the price of everything and the value of nothing, not even their own self fortune, because they are using the wrong dimension of measurement. quality-weighted-time is the objectively correct way in which real value should be measured, and quality weighting is limited only by The Time Period in which time and money are being spent.
More noteworthy, any human mistaking dollars for qwt for this scorekeeping reason is still violating the prime rule of being a good Capitalist - they are demonstrating nonzero-concern for what others think of them. Implicitly and inefficiently, these individuals are expressing negative concern for others, as now is measurable by how worse off they are in units of their time. Specifically this is calculable as the opportunity cost of not investing more dollars for an enhanced future marketplace, measurable by others in said marketplace by the cost to this imperfect capitalist’s life expectancy, (all unitized in units of time).
Equity Miracle Swap Instruments
Perhaps the above explanations are not exhaustive of the full truth. Maybe some sufficiently wealthy Capitalists simply do not have the means to invest their dollars in a way that can reliably pay greater dividends. Therefore I propose a new type of financial derivative instrument called an “Equity Miracle Swap”. These would be voluntarily issued as contracts from the mega-wealthy. Here is a hypothetical example:
Rational (and thus risk averse) Billionaire-G (BG) possessing $100B in dollar-denominated-capital can now do research and will likely find they are genetically predisposed to a (presently) incurable illness (let’s say Small Cell Lung Cancer = SCLC). BG could use the chancy math in the proof above and might determine that Billions $91-$100 have minimal true value to him/herself when converted to qwt. Therefore BG could decide to start up an enterprise to find a cure for SCLC and use a $10B Equity Miracle Swap = EMSSCLC-$10B, or just “EMS” for short. The purpose is to maximally incent the researchers, who might otherwise just be employees. The contract would stipulate that all equity in the enterprise transfers over to the research team only upon successful development of the cure.
When measured in dollars, the payoff for BG is represented by the performance of the stock, which is greater than -$10B if no cure; or -$10B if the miracle cure is found. The former is greater than the latter. Which do you think BG will prefer? Obviously the latter, especially if they wind up contracting SCLC in the future! But the former was greater measured in dollars? How to reconcile?
This can be quantitatively reconciled by using the correct unit of measurement - qwt. Here is how: the newly discovered cure might empower their remaining dollars to purchase considerably more qwt in the future. The real expected return on investment for BG could be calculated actuarially as follows: Expected ROI = { Expected Return }/{ Investment } = { E(Δqwt | Miracle) * [ P(Miracle | EMS) - P(Miracle | no EMS) ] }/{ A’($100B) - A’($90B) } Where: 1. A’($D) maps to utility measured in quality-weighted-time presently purchasable by D dollars 2. E(Δqwt | Miracle) = Expected change in purchasable qwt given miracle cure occurs in lifetime 3. P(Miracle | Event X) = Probability of Miracle given Event X
Note that because BG is risk averse, diminishing returns render billions $91-$100 worth very little qwt. Therefore the cost in the denominator = A’($100B) - A’($90B) constitutes a very small amount of qwt, rendering the expected ROI very large, even for relatively small changes to P(Miracle). Obviously the lawyers could tinker with the terms of the contract. Finally note that society is incidentally made better off if the cure is found.
Macro-Economic qwt
Please now consider the benefit of a qwt-centric model from a Macro-Economic standpoint in the context of the Doomsday Clock, where as always, economics can objectively measure value (or “GDP”) in units of quality-weighted-time. On this Macro scale, the quantity unit will be "Healthy Human Hours", calculated as always by multiplying quality weights of presently healthy humans, with units of time, where any human is healthy if he/she produces more future human hours. Note how naturally maternity and child-raising now fit into GDP.
This may also help resolve the argument over which crimes should be punishable with incarceration - specifically only crimes where the individual is deemed likely to contribute less negative future qwt to GDP when in jail vs when out of jail. Also there is a natural extension of this for the death penalty, although I do not wish to make such moral judgements. Footnote 10: Any argument that population overgrowth leads to mass death is correct. Policy models need only step back and estimate healthy human hours in the more distant future. Calculus can be used to model public policy decisions from present-day infinitely far into the future and compare infinite relativities for different policy options.
Also consider that actuarial modeling could be used to objectively estimate the cost of disinformation posed to every Capitalist on the planet, measurable of course, in units of time. Specifically calculated as expected changes to Humanity’s Expectation of Life on the Doomsday Clock, plus individual life expectancy given Midnight, times the probability of midnight. Also observe the need and means for due discount in modeling the "decrease" in the future qQMP (which might include radiation).
The Emergence of Economic Symbiogenesis
Try to arrive at the conclusion any good Capitalist must. Here is a hint - genetic Symbiogenesis resulted in the planetary-wide cooperation of all plant and animal life to regulate Earth’s Oxygen concentration. Note the immense success is, of course, measured in qwt. Weighting in this context needs to satisfy the same tautology as always. Therefore the final answer on this Mega-Macro scale comes in organism-count-weighted units of time. This is the current game strategy that genetic Evolution has concluded on Earth to date. It came from pitting individual selfish microbial interests against one another in the 0-rules game of survival of the fittest. The result is the current marriage between the Plant and Animal Kingdoms! (Like all great marriages there are still a few mentionable skirmishes.)
Also observe the micro-macro relational analogue between Chloroplasts and Mitochondria with Plants and Animals. Consider how this might analogize individual decision making with the marketplace as a whole.
If you are religious, consider just how correct this implies your understanding of God’s wish for the general wellbeing of every individual to be.
My conclusion is that there is a trail of breadcrumbs for our species to follow and we’ve had the right idea all along. We’ve just been doing the math wrong. Now every decision maker can better understand how to measure their own self-fortune and get to growing it faster!
Also interesting is the game theoretic argument for why every person must be allowed full forgiveness - it is the only way world leaders who are concerned for their own wellbeing could possibly embrace such a model. Astonishingly full forgiveness is 100% consistent with every major religion’s claim of what God hopes all of us can achieve. In economics, any desire for revenge can now be seen as The Sunk Cost Fallacy, measurable as always in units of qwt.
Finally, I wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades.
Key Technological Developments 1. The advent of nuclear weapons which align all of humanity's interests in a way which never used to exist. Even survivors of a nuclear war will be far worse off, now as measurable by decreases to the quality and Quantity of any future radioactive marketplace. Less qwt for purchase! 2. The advent of the internet renders information around the globe nearly free and instantaneous. If we can learn to be more self-interested, the only conclusion which rationally follows is to dismantle all troll farms for the simple purpose of maximizing Macro Time until Doomsday. The New Nash Equilibrium available to our race could be quantitatively modeled with actuarial techniques, and the optimal solution is to push Midnight infinitely far into the future by allowing every rational decision maker the means to make rational decisions with 100% true information. The internet sets up a worldwide analogy with our nervous system.
Footnote 11 - The Micro-Economic Model is now consistent with John Lennon's definition of life success: happiness. When asked what he wanted to “be” when he grew up, John responded "happy". John’s teacher thought he misunderstood the question. If John's teacher had instead followed up with the question to quantify: "How happy do you want to be?" - John could have replied: "as happy as possible for all my years.”
Footnote 12 - Warren Buffet's advice to "do what you love so you never work a day in your life" is quantified naturally by the model. I hope that more will start to take this advice. The qwt-centric-micro-model shows they will quite literally be made richer as a result. Given that richer people tend to contribute more to GDP, society will be made incidentally better off as a result. Star Trek almost had it but missed two words: “we work to better ourselves, and incidentally, the rest of mankind”.
submitted by tjn50351 to evolutionReddit [link] [comments]

Should I put “Part time professional gambler” on my resumé?

Hi everyone,
I just passed Exam P yesterday and am now about to start job hunting in earnest. I decided to pursue the actuary career path at the beginning of the year instead of finishing my master’s degree in a different field. I just felt very uninspired in that program and knew there wasn’t a future there for me.
Anyways, I learned how to count cards at blackjack during college, and have been fairly successful at it. I’ve made some money and been kicked out of most of the casinos in my state at least once lol. Was just wondering if that’d be something that future employers would be interested in hearing about, or if it’d be safer to leave it off.
Thanks!
submitted by Ruscabolivitchy to actuary [link] [comments]

Economic Symbiogenesis

Visuals
KEYNOTE - Below includes an original proof that for every rational individual, The Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Function is bounded from above. The proof starts below: “Proof Reductio ad Absurdum”.
Economic Symbiogenesis
Thomas J Novak
Disclaimers 1. I wish to contend that Micro and Macro Economics each constitute a hidden branch of evolution. To be clear, I’m not arguing for an analogy, ​I’m arguing each branch is an evolutionary process; and with this comes the mathematical framework needed to scientifically ​objectify success (major goal for every Capitalist). 2. The quantitative aspects are partially rooted in Game Theoretic Evolution. I do not expect this theory will garner majority support or ​understanding. It is only an esoteric theoretical ideal; but it is my hope that this will gradually change until one-day we have a Utopia. 3. The mechanism is voluntary through rational self-incentives. It advocates for a change in perspective for optimal decision making purposes. 4. Dollars and other fiat currencies are still completely necessary. Fiat currency constitutes a valuable technology that eliminates the need for ​bartering, yielding considerable savings in life’s prime asset - TIME. 5. I apologize to the reader in advance for the long essay. I hope it is "worth" your time.
Key Conclusions
Present day humanity is full of capitalists that have the right idea but are missing some key math. This is causing them to behave inefficiently in the context of their own self-interests. Ideal Capitalism is Pareto Optimal and should be practiced by all; and it should lead to maximal economic growth. I also wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades. Key developments are nuclear weapons and the internet. Discussed more in the last section.
Introduction
The "science" of Economics is not yet a science. Don't get me wrong - micro-economics is just about there; but macro-econ is a totally different story. Some call it “The Dismal Science” because it makes many quantitative claims that are inconsistent with empirical data. An example is the claim that John Rockefeller’s fortune could be made comparable to contemporary fortunes by adjusting his dollars for inflation and real growth. In fact only adjusting his hours for real growth does the trick.
In general macro-econ has a zero-sum-dollar-centric structure that does not allow for input of things like maternity and child rearing - two fundamentally "valuable" human activities. Another problem is that planetary-wide risks like war, (and that which is assured by "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD)), are not naturally measurable in dollars.
Some concepts from financial mathematics and science can generalize economic measurements into a co-compatible theory that almost seems too simple to be necessary. Basic results agree with common sense in every way. Some conclusions are so obvious the calculation seems pointless. Others might be beyond common sense similar to the notion that the Earth on which one walks is anything but flat. The former supports credence for the latter. All examples of human stupidity supports a need for all of it.
Ideal Capitalism
Most powers past through present can be thought cold, "calculating”, and self-interested; and most presently embrace association with Capitalism. Paradoxically, human history, (even recent), is a litany of fighting and stupidity and hurt feelings. These are inefficiencies from the Capitalist perspective, so something must be wrong with these “calculations”.
The argument will start with a Micro-Economic exercise intended to provide quantitative framework to measure just how unCapitalistic many present-day capitalists are acting, by unitizing all their actions in a scientific manner. Any Capitalist wishing to maximize their net-worth will be made more materialistically rich simply by maintaining complete indifference about others, understanding the entire picture, and trusting numbers. Wall Street can confirm this is its goal.
“Complete indifference” means precisely 0 concern for anything other than material-self-worth and 100% concern for material-self-worth. Nonzero concern for others, positive or negative, is suboptimal since it distracts from the objective of maximizing self-worth. Footnote 1: “Others” does not include the friends and family category. All intentional altruism can be represented easily by having those individuals' interests summed and grouped together so as to be viewed as part of the Capitalist’s “self-interest”. All reasoning forward is unaffected by how many friends and family are now implied to be included.
The results can empower all decision makers to calculate in the only way possible: with actual mathematics. The numbers will sometimes disagree with intuition; but the numbers will always be correct. The optimal strategy will hardly change except for sufficiently wealthy individuals. The proof can be seen empirically by back-testing the model in history on the domain in which all success is measured: quality-weighted-time (qwt). The definition of qwt will leverage Game Theoretic Evolution and is discussed more below.
Some conclusions may be counterintuitive similar to the way natural selection favored Symbiogenesis; but maximum profit calls for absolute “trust” in numbers above all else - exactly as exhibited in microbial evolution. Any call for “selfless” acting resulting in benefits to others is strictly incidental; and any less is unselfishly selfish in that it renders this inefficient capitalist less wealthy than maximally possible.
Step 1 - Any political bias about aiding others should be deleted. An “Ideal Capitalist” expresses precisely 0 concern for others and what others think - no more, no less. As long as an individual is correctly acting in their own best interests, they are acting as a Capitalist. Contra-positively one can claim to be a capitalist and act inefficiently against their own interests as many “capitalists” will be shown are doing today. I suggest a new term “Maximalist” to mean an Ideal Capitalist and avoid the need for case sensitivity.
Step 2 - Success Spawns Success. What is meant by quality-weighted-time? The definition comes from the only objective arbiter possible: Evolution through Survival of the Fittest. Something is “fit”, or “successful”, if it results in more quantity (Q) or more quality (q), where more quality means it produced more Quantity faster - which renders it more successful. This is The Tautology of Evolutionary Game Theory (The Tautology). For any evolutionary process, quantity is the metric which quantifies success. Quality is measured in quantity per unit of time (q=Q/t). Note that multiplying q=Q/t with t yields Q=qwt: the metric of success that necessarily satisfies The Tautology. Footnote 2: The word “tautology” is meant in the propositional logic sense. No negative connotation should be inferred.
Step 3 - How to connect economics with evolution?
Micro-economic decision strategy for trading time (t) for dollars ($), (or $ for t), amounts to a “phenotype”, (or observable trait), coded for by genetics inherited or mutated, and ideas learned or created. Respectively: - Inherited genetics constrain every rational human to be “risk averse”, regardless of self-perception, because natural selection favored and continues to favor risk aversion. Defined below and proven further below. - Mutated genes are almost never favorable for a human so this case will be discarded (although this force is quite powerful over quintillions of human-hours). - Richard Dawkins creatively postulated ideas to be “memes”: new evolutionarily viable packets of information, subject to selection forces, as they spread from person to person with varying levels of success overtime. Respectively gene inheritance and mutation is analogous to meme learning and creation. Furthermore the economy can be seen as a subsection of the biosphere governed primarily by evolution through forces of selection. The economy evolves through selection of both genes and memes, and memes are more abstract; but this should not change anything about the evolutionary game theory. After all humanity itself is naturally occurring, so Artificial Selection of Genes and Memes can be seen as a more complex extended phenotype coded for by the evolution of genes through Natural Selection. Any argument that “Artificial Selection” constitutes a meaningful difference from “Natural Selection” must first come to terms with the observation that humanity is itself, naturally occurring.
Step 4 - What is the definition of “risk averse”? The mathematical definition of risk averse simply requires diminishing returns to be experienced on assets like dollars. For example: an additional $1M adds less “utility” if you presently have $2B, compared to if you presently have $2M. If a person is not risk averse, then more success encourages more risky behavior. This is inconsistent with the observation that more success means one has more to lose. Therefore any risk-inclined individual cannot be an Ideal Capitalist as they will almost surely go broke gambling.
Step 5 - What is “utility”? Utility is the abstract micro-economic concept that, by definition, quantifies value. The unsettled question of how to actually do this is addressed below.
Total Utility = True Material Self-Worth = “well-offness”. All have one-to-one correspondence with each other. All are “mutually inclusive”. For example: twice the quantity of utility, by definition, means twice material self-worth; and so, the individual is exactly twice better-off. Diminishing returns do not apply to quantities of utility.
Step 6 - How to define an objective function to maximize utility? Per Wikipedia: “Consider a set of alternatives facing an individual, and over which the individual has a preference ordering. A ‘utility function’ is able to represent those preferences if it is possible to assign a real number to each alternative, in such a way that alternative A is assigned a number greater than alternative B if, and only if, the individual prefers alternative A to alternative B.”
Keynote: dollars are not material wealth, dollars buy material wealth, with diminishing returns, limited by genes, memes, and the quality and Quantity of the Marketplace (respectively qQMP).
To illustrate this, consider how rich you would be with $1T cash on Mars in the present day marketplace. Personally as an oxygen breathing Capitalist, I would view my self-worth as constituting a liability - measurable in my personal subjective frame of reference in units of time, weighted by some self-knowable quality of life representing the quantity of misery per hour that I experience dying alone. Presently the quality of the marketplace on Mars is exactly 0 because 0 quantity is available for purchase. Footnote 3: The quality of life purchasable given the Time and Place is shown below to be bounded from above, although it is by no means bounded from below.
Back to Earth. If sufficiently rich, then maximizing material wealth calls for buying everything in desired amounts to maximize present quality of Life (qoL), holding ample dollars in reserve to spend on future quality (like a fancier vacation) and future quantity (like a longer vacation), and allocating the rest to increase future qQ which is not presently available for purchase (any new invention). In keeping with The Tautology, quality enhancements will provide for faster consumption of Quantity (Q=qwt). Note how perfectly this fits with The Tautology.
Ideally a good Capitalist with sufficient dollars would employ a strategy so as to maximize qoL at every point in time by exhausting most/all dollars by death. Any argument that an individual cannot meaningfully increase future qQMP fails. As an example: a medical breakthrough for genetic predispositions could yield considerably more time for any one capitalist, with expected returns modeled via actuarial mathematics. Consider just how far Humanity has come since the birth of The Enlightenment - it is easy to see how the not-so-distant future may include considerably more qQoL for sale. (Conversely the future may include far less qQoL if macro-decision-public-policy modeling continues to fail to quantify/unitize the cost of war - discussed more in the Macro Economic qwt section below.)
Quality enhancements, although more subjective, can be substantially accelerated by one talented individual. Examples include Albert Einstein, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk. All are responsible for inventing and/or producing new things which I personally enjoy - the qQoL that I can purchase is greater as a result of their work. My time and money could not purchase such things if they were not invented. As discussed next, micro-economic quality weights are quality of Life (qoL) weights. They have an upper bound that can be “objectively” unitized and measured by the self-interested party's own frame of reference.
Step 7 - How can an individual objectively define an upper bound for these inherently subjective quality weights with any mathematical rigor? Is it possible to prove dollars can only buy so much utility? Yes!
Proof Reductio ad Absurdum
Ripping off an idea from one of the greatest thinkers ever - I propose a financial thought experiment: pretend it is possible for you to pause all of society and gamble at the “Name Your Winnings Casino”.
Here you can choose entering into an even bet: 50% of the time you win the largest number of dollars you can mathematically express = $P; or 50% of the time you suffer absolute ruin: the casino takes everything of material value and your dollars and returns you to the real world where no insurance policies exist for you and no friends or family are able to ease your loss by lending a couch to sleep on or pulling strings for a job offeinterview. If you lose you reenter the world a naked homeless person “worth” exactly $0 and you can never play again.
Four observations follow:
  1. The decision to bet is made independent of any consideration of others, consistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
  2. Any sane human with the smallest capacity for self-honestly could conservatively estimate a walk-away number A, (denominated in dollars), such that if present “net worth” is greater than $A then no bet.
  3. No rational person choosing to bet would play more than once because either they’d lose or they’d win $P and have received the payout they named. “Letting it ride” constitutes an obviously dumb decision born out of the unwillingness to simply express the larger number in the first bet; however, a risk-inclined individual always values more over what they have and so they would be compelled to keep betting. Therefore rationality is mutually exclusive with risk-inclination. Furthermore if the betting person is risk averse, then $A is strictly less than $P for some minimum value of $P.
  4. Some confident rational individual might argue no such number $A exists for them because they’re so good they can start all over if they lose and earn a new fortune; and it would at first glance seem this individual is correct.
Many logical conclusions result:
A. An honest estimate for $A irrefutably reveals a hidden upper bound for this individual’s “Utility Curve”. Specifically if the function A’($A) = A’ maps to utility derived by $A dollar denominated “wealth”, then no amount of dollars even exists for this individual to choose to bet. Mathematically: “Net worth” > “Bet value” => A’($A) > .5A’($A+$P) +.50 => 2A’(A) > A’($A+$P) for all values of $P (The left hand-side must be greater or the bet would not be declined by a rational individual.)
B. 2A’ is not presently purchasable with any amount of dollars. 2A’ may be purchased in some future marketplace, (possibly with less than A future dollars), in the form of a medical breakthrough or buying future children birthday presents, but it is not currently purchasable in the present as demonstrated by the individual’s refusal to bet. Conversely A future dollars may lose “purchasing power” of just A’ if the future marketplace is inferior. Therefore true material-worth is fundamentally a function of the marketplace and cannot even be expressed in terms of dollars.
C. Most choosing to bet would logically express the upside payout $P as a sequence of 9s. Many more would know to use powers of powers. Knowledge of Knuth’s Up Arrow Notation could simultaneously save time and yield considerably “more upside”. Due consideration for exactly how much time should be spent writing out fantastically large numbers reveals an irrefutably objective hidden limiting factor: this person’s lifetime - measurable in units of time. This reveals one of two hidden domains on which value must be measured - TIME!
D. From this it directly follows that the confident individual in (4) is wrong. Some number $A greater than $P must exist, EVEN FOR THEM. However this individual is sure $A doesn’t and keeps writing numbers out for $P until they die. Therefore $A for them equals the number they have written out at time of death, never having played the game. I believe this is the definition of a Darwinian unfit capitalist - completely inconsistent with the Ideal Capitalist.
Analysis
The argument above establishes a horizontal bound for utility – lifetime measurable in units of time. It also establishes a finite upper bound for utility itself (represented by the area of the “utility rectangle” - see spreadsheet). This implies a finite upper bound for the rectangle’s height must exist; and this is empirically supported by the observation that billionaires are not known to blow through their life fortune in any short-period of time.
So why does any sufficiently wealthy capitalist focus on earning more dollars and die before exhausting most/all of their dollars (last death if family inheritance involved)? If sufficiently wealthy, material wealth is necessarily a bounded function of The Time Period, or the “quality and Quantity of the Marketplace”. TTP = qQMP >= qQoL. In other words, the marketplace itself is secretly an asset for every Capitalist!
qMP(TTP) = Max quality of life, or “max utility per hour” available for purchase in TTP QMP(TTP) = Max Quantity of life, or “max utility” for purchase in TTP (IE a longer vacation or medicine)
Thus on the micro level, quality weights are utility weights; and utility weights are capped by The Time Period. Thus it is the case that for every (finite) individual, a finite upper bound for utility is self-measurable in Time Period-Weighted Time (qwt = TPWT). For example: 2020 hours have far more value to any sufficiently rational and wealthy individual (SRWI) than 1920 hours. And as the earlier questionnaire (hopefully) shows, this is realizable by most middle-class people today. In other words, today’s middle class is sufficiently wealthy to the extent TPWT resolves the Rockefeller paradox. Footnote8: The size of the middle class itself is unfortunately shrinking. This has potential to result in negative externalities for all.
Since an Ideal Capitalist maximizes self-material-wealth above all else, then if they were also sufficiently wealthy, they would measure value in Time-Period-Weighted Hours since they would always purchase maximum utility per hour. This is by definition, since any SRWI has all necessary means to purchase max utility available per hour. (Note just how important quick access to true information would be.) Footnote 9: Neuroscience could use Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) to objectively measure the Micro-Economic utility unit as “Neurotransmitter-Molecular-Count Weighted Hours”. Consideration for how to weight different neurotransmitters (like Serotonin vs Dopamine) would be necessary. For now, we are all similar enough for “time” to suffice, at least for short run measurements. For example: what is the penalty for severe crimes? “Time in jail” or death (all the person’s time).
Quantifying the Marketplace
Given the average life expectancy now is more than twice that of prehistoric man, the marketplace itself is worth strictly more than 50% of any sufficiently wealthy individual’s “asset portfolio”. Just note “time is money”. Footnote 10: They need not be rational to "realize" this time, so long as their doctor is sufficiently competent. "Realization" will come in the form of living longer, quite consistent with the accounting definition of gain/loss realization.
Keynote - a Maximalist will do more than just maximize present qQ purchased. They will also divert unneeded dollars to maximize future qQMP so that more qQ is available for purchase. Thus the Maximalist calculation includes due consideration for additional dollars that will be needed given future qQ becomes available.
Squaring Theory with Reality
Most already know most of this, at least on the common-sense level. So why don’t sufficiently wealthy Capitalists invest maximum dollars with less strings attached to maximize the future? Is it because that would help everyone else and constitute socialism? No! In this context socialism is Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand”. A good Capitalist aims for precisely 0 concern about others, and any concern for implied socialism would constitute nonzero concern. Such concern would amount to incomprehensible irrationality far beneath any good Capitalist. So what else could it be?
Perhaps it’s simply the fact that much of humanity is still measuring their net-worth in the wrong dimension for the inefficient purpose of feeling superior to others with less money. Anyone currently doing this quite literally knows the price of everything and the value of nothing, not even their own self fortune, because they are using the wrong dimension of measurement. quality-weighted-time is the objectively correct way in which real value should be measured, and quality weighting is limited only by The Time Period in which time and money are being spent.
More noteworthy, any human mistaking dollars for qwt for this scorekeeping reason is still violating the prime rule of being a good Capitalist - they are demonstrating nonzero-concern for what others think of them. Implicitly and inefficiently, these individuals are expressing negative concern for others, as now is measurable by how worse off they are in units of their time. Specifically this is calculable as the opportunity cost of not investing more dollars for an enhanced future marketplace, measurable by others in said marketplace by the cost to this imperfect capitalist’s life expectancy, (all unitized in units of time).
Equity Miracle Swap Instruments
Perhaps the above explanations are not exhaustive of the full truth. Maybe some sufficiently wealthy Capitalists simply do not have the means to invest their dollars in a way that can reliably pay greater dividends. Therefore I propose a new type of financial derivative instrument called an “Equity Miracle Swap”. These would be voluntarily issued as contracts from the mega-wealthy. Here is a hypothetical example:
Rational (and thus risk averse) Billionaire-G (BG) possessing $100B in dollar-denominated-capital can now do research and will likely find they are genetically predisposed to a (presently) incurable illness (let’s say Small Cell Lung Cancer = SCLC). BG could use the chancy math in the proof above and might determine that Billions $91-$100 have minimal true value to him/herself when converted to qwt. Therefore BG could decide to start up an enterprise to find a cure for SCLC and use a $10B Equity Miracle Swap = EMSSCLC-$10B, or just “EMS” for short. The purpose is to maximally incent the researchers, who might otherwise just be employees. The contract would stipulate that all equity in the enterprise transfers over to the research team only upon successful development of the cure.
When measured in dollars, the payoff for BG is represented by the performance of the stock, which is greater than -$10B if no cure; or -$10B if the miracle cure is found. The former is greater than the latter. Which do you think BG will prefer? Obviously the latter, especially if they wind up contracting SCLC in the future! But the former was greater measured in dollars? How to reconcile?
This can be quantitatively reconciled by using the correct unit of measurement - qwt. Here is how: the newly discovered cure might empower their remaining dollars to purchase considerably more qwt in the future. The real expected return on investment for BG could be calculated actuarially as follows: Expected ROI = { Expected Return }/{ Investment } = { E(Δqwt | Miracle) * [ P(Miracle | EMS) - P(Miracle | no EMS) ] }/{ A’($100B) - A’($90B) } Where: 1. A’($D) maps to utility measured in quality-weighted-time presently purchasable by D dollars 2. E(Δqwt | Miracle) = Expected change in purchasable qwt given miracle cure occurs in lifetime 3. P(Miracle | Event X) = Probability of Miracle given Event X
Note that because BG is risk averse, diminishing returns render billions $91-$100 worth very little qwt. Therefore the cost in the denominator = A’($100B) - A’($90B) constitutes a very small amount of qwt, rendering the expected ROI very large, even for relatively small changes to P(Miracle). Obviously the lawyers could tinker with the terms of the contract. Finally note that society is incidentally made better off if the cure is found.
Macro-Economic qwt
Please now consider the benefit of a qwt-centric model from a Macro-Economic standpoint in the context of the Doomsday Clock, where as always, economics can objectively measure value (or “GDP”) in units of quality-weighted-time. On this Macro scale, the quantity unit will be "Healthy Human Hours", calculated as always by multiplying quality weights of presently healthy humans, with units of time, where any human is healthy if he/she produces more future human hours. Note how naturally maternity and child-raising now fit into GDP.
This may also help resolve the argument over which crimes should be punishable with incarceration - specifically only crimes where the individual is deemed likely to contribute less negative future qwt to GDP when in jail vs when out of jail. Also there is a natural extension of this for the death penalty, although I do not wish to make such moral judgements. Footnote 10: Any argument that population overgrowth leads to mass death is correct. Policy models need only step back and estimate healthy human hours in the more distant future. Calculus can be used to model public policy decisions from present-day infinitely far into the future and compare infinite relativities for different policy options.
Also consider that actuarial modeling could be used to objectively estimate the cost of disinformation posed to every Capitalist on the planet, measurable of course, in units of time. Specifically calculated as expected changes to Humanity’s Expectation of Life on the Doomsday Clock, plus individual life expectancy given Midnight, times the probability of midnight. Also observe the need and means for due discount in modeling the "decrease" in the future qQMP (which might include radiation).
The Emergence of Economic Symbiogenesis
Try to arrive at the conclusion any good Capitalist must. Here is a hint - genetic Symbiogenesis resulted in the planetary-wide cooperation of all plant and animal life to regulate Earth’s Oxygen concentration. Note the immense success is, of course, measured in qwt. Weighting in this context needs to satisfy the same tautology as always. Therefore the final answer on this Mega-Macro scale comes in organism-count-weighted units of time. This is the current game strategy that genetic Evolution has concluded on Earth to date. It came from pitting individual selfish microbial interests against one another in the 0-rules game of survival of the fittest. The result is the current marriage between the Plant and Animal Kingdoms! (Like all great marriages there are still a few mentionable skirmishes.)
Also observe the micro-macro relational analogue between Chloroplasts and Mitochondria with Plants and Animals. Consider how this might analogize individual decision making with the marketplace as a whole.
If you are religious, consider just how correct this implies your understanding of God’s wish for the general wellbeing of every individual to be.
My conclusion is that there is a trail of breadcrumbs for our species to follow and we’ve had the right idea all along. We’ve just been doing the math wrong. Now every decision maker can better understand how to measure their own self-fortune and get to growing it faster!
Also interesting is the game theoretic argument for why every person must be allowed full forgiveness - it is the only way world leaders who are concerned for their own wellbeing could possibly embrace such a model. Astonishingly full forgiveness is 100% consistent with every major religion’s claim of what God hopes all of us can achieve. In economics, any desire for revenge can now be seen as The Sunk Cost Fallacy, measurable as always in units of qwt.
Finally, I wish to conjecture that a new Nash Equilibrium is available to our race: Perpetual peacetime under the individual Pareto Optimal Strategy of Ideal Capitalism as every individual looks to maximize their self-fortune and troll farms are voluntarily dismantled. If this sounds too good to be true, note that it very well may have been for all of human-history save the last few decades.
Key Technological Developments 1. The advent of nuclear weapons which align all of humanity's interests in a way which never used to exist. Even survivors of a nuclear war will be far worse off, now as measurable by decreases to the quality and Quantity of any future radioactive marketplace. Less qwt for purchase! 2. The advent of the internet renders information around the globe nearly free and instantaneous. If we can learn to be more self-interested, the only conclusion which rationally follows is to dismantle all troll farms for the simple purpose of maximizing Macro Time until Doomsday. The New Nash Equilibrium available to our race could be quantitatively modeled with actuarial techniques, and the optimal solution is to push Midnight infinitely far into the future by allowing every rational decision maker the means to make rational decisions with 100% true information. The internet sets up a worldwide analogy with our nervous system.
Footnote 11 - The Micro-Economic Model is now consistent with John Lennon's definition of life success: happiness. When asked what he wanted to “be” when he grew up, John responded "happy". John’s teacher thought he misunderstood the question. If John's teacher had instead followed up with the question to quantify: "How happy do you want to be?" - John could have replied: "as happy as possible for all my years.”
Footnote 12 - Warren Buffet's advice to "do what you love so you never work a day in your life" is quantified naturally by the model. I hope that more will start to take this advice. The qwt-centric-micro-model shows they will quite literally be made richer as a result. Given that richer people tend to contribute more to GDP, society will be made incidentally better off as a result. Star Trek almost had it but missed two words: “we work to better ourselves, and incidentally, the rest of mankind”.
submitted by tjn50351 to evolution [link] [comments]

Should I mention I'm a student in my pitches?

So I've been writing some articles on various niches for some low-paying clients. Work I've done varies from casino to painting blog posts. I've grown tired and I can't get myself to write another "Top 15 Slot Sites" article.
Now from the start of June, I've been building my brand. Since I'm an Actuarial Science student, I've chosen the finance and insurance niche. I've built my website and I'm in the process of guest blogging to build my portfolio.
Before I start pitching to potential clients, I need some advice from you experts.
Should I tell my future clients that I'm a student in the field. And if so, will I sound inexperienced? And if I don't, will I come across as a wannabe finance writer with no knowledge on the niche?
Can I mention it in my "about me" page?
I'll appreciate any advice. Thanks.
submitted by whynotdavy to freelanceWriters [link] [comments]

Brainstorming the EVE Revolution

Preface:

When I have asked people to describe the current EVE meta, the responses have overwhelmingly included the word “stale,” with numerous complaints centered around botting, risk aversion, the condensation and supremacy (both in the game and in game updates) of null mega-blocs (which everyone knows are inferior to LEGOs), and the general lack of content variety that once was the hallmark of EVE. EVE Online is very much an economic sandbox, and any economist with more than three brain cells to rub together could tell you that in entirely unregulated systems, the largest and most established corporations will subsume the others around it, quickly gobbling up any newcomers to the market to eliminate competition (See: AOL-Time Warner-Pepsico-Viacom-Halliburton-Skynet-Toyota-Taco Bell-Trader Joe's), and what we see in EVE is no different: groups that are already large and powerful have the means to gain money, power, and influence at a rate much larger than that of smaller groups (rorqual moon mining, super ratting, jump bridges, etc.).
This set-up creates what is essentially a regressive tax on smaller entities: they have no way to compete with already-established entities, now or in the future, because they will always be at a disadvantage compared to the mega-bloc (barring some massive influx of external capital; see: Casino Wars). What this means is that the EVE player base is basically like the Catholic Church: the general population is the old guard, established folks who control the doctrine (see what I did there?), with relatively few newcomers attracted or able to establish themselves. As people leave to pursue activities in meatspace or burn out, there is little new blood to replace them, and CCP’s recent strategy of making up for this lack of new players with having the old folks get multiple subscriptions (because you need to have a tackle alt, a cyno alt, a super alt, and a FAX alt, right?) makes decent economic sense for the company (in the short run), but definitely condemns the game to a slow death.
So, what I present here are a series of what I will call “revolutionary” ideas; ideas that range from freshening the meta to make it more viable for new players to gain a foothold in this crazy game universe to collapsing core game mechanics in ways that would likely result in a huge uproar from EVE’s player base. I do not necessarily claim that any of these are good ideas, but they are definitely interesting ideas to consider and discuss and are based off personal pet peeves I have had while playing EVE over the past few months.
Wow that was a long fucking intro. Jesus, let’s get to it.

I. Fix Low Sec and Faction Warfare

New players start off in high sec with very limited resources, and the game implies that low security space is a way for players to dip their toes into PVP, piracy, and other game mechanics that are excluded from hisec. Especially prominent to new players is the Factional Warfare mechanic, which provides new players with a ready-made group of allies, chances for PVP, and roleplaying opportunities. Theoretically, low sec and faction warfare mechanics should reward these players for their gumption… in reality, that’s not what happens.
Low security (especially the FW Warzone) space is plagued by numerous issues, and I am going to attempt to address some of them here with some indecent proposals:
  1. Ban supers and titans in lowsec: from a logical standpoint, this makes sense. No caps in hisec; regular caps allowed in low; supers allowed in null. It also makes sense from a lore standpoint as empires may not want capsuleer titans wandering around their space willy-nilly. On top of that, it makes it much harder for null-based entities to deploy a massive super fleet to sweep every smaller group out of low sec so they can essentially use it as an auxiliary to its own space (looking at you, Snuff). Supers and titans are huge, expensive, and only available to the truly wealthy. They should not be in low sec if low sec is meant to be viable for new players as an induction into PVP. On a personal note, if I have one more assault frigate killed by a cloaked supercarrier outside a plex, I may explode.
  2. Ban cloaking devices inside and outside faction warfare plexes: Tell me, what is the point of going to a novice complex (only T1 frigates allowed in) if a cloaky insta-lock Loki can just sit outside the acceleration gate and blap anything that tries to come in? Or how about the aforementioned scenario of a cloaked supercarrier sitting near the gate just waiting for their tackle alt to grab someone before they can slide in. Alternatively, there could be damage clouds outside plexes that punish people more frequently the longer they sit out there (after 1 minute sitting there you take 1000 omni damage, after 2 minutes, you take 10k omni damage, after 5 minutes you take 100k omni damage, etc.). This second method has all sorts of problems with it, but damn would it be interesting.
  3. Make the insta-slide a thing again!: Up until a few months ago, if you landed on the acceleration gate, and hit the gate as soon as you landed, you would always warp into the FW complex. You could not be pointed or scrammed outside, so long as you took the gate immediately. This mechanic was critical to ensuring that if you showed up to a small plex, you would fight frigates and destroyers, not T3Cs and supers. A super-easy fix to a really discouraging problem for new players.
  4. Dramatically increase victory points per complex run: As it stands now, a faction must run 150 complexes to completion (plus additional complexes for each complex the enemy faction has run) in order to bash the infrastructure hub. Each complex takes between 10 and 20 minutes to run. Why in hell is the grind so pointless and vicious?! In Fozziesov (which is basically FW on crack), each node captured stabilizes or destabilizes the structure by 6-7% (albeit on a timer). In FW, each complex stabilizes or destabilizes the system by 0.6%! Yes, you read that right: a fraction of one percent. You can circle the beacons for days and never get anywhere close to making the system vulnerable (especially since all those deplexing bots get to the system while you sleep). Reducing the number of necessary plexes to 25 or even 50 could make FW seem less like pounding your head against a brick wall and makes FW viable and engaging gameplay for small- and mid-sized groups.
  5. Severe warzone structure restrictions: Arguably the biggest problem facing FW today is that control of the warzone is pointless. If the enemy faction captures your staging system, it used to be a critical blow, as now all your stuff was locked inside a station you could not access. With the introduction of citadels, that situation has changed drastically and was never addressed or altered in any meaningful way. If my faction loses control of a system, my Fortizar works just fine. In fact, my industrial facilities can benefit from system FW bonuses even if it is not my faction that owns the system. I could be looking at 50% reduced industry costs while sitting deep in enemy territory. How does that make sense? Thus, my insane proposal for this is to drastically reduce citadel function in lowsec systems in the FW warzones by (forgive the shitty indents, reddit):
a. Preventing anchoring of structures in space controlled by the enemy faction. Any structures in enemy space (after a system flip) automatically enter low-power mode and do not have any services, including docking and tethering. To prevent "enemy holding corporations," there would additionally need to be an "ACL Override" that would prevent enemy milita from docking/tethering in these structures in the warzone, regardless of the standings/ACLs of the corporation that owns them (e.g. I could not just make a one-man Calmil corporation just to anchor an astrahus that Galmil can dock in in Caldari space).
b. Removing neutral structures: Structures belonging to groups that are not engaged in factional warfare cannot be anchored in the FW warzone, and any structure in the warzone transferred to a neutral entity automatically enter low-power mode and disallow all docking and tethering. Neutral toons can still dock at NPC stations, but cannot dock or tether at citadels owned by either faction. This method is extreme, but necessary to avoid FW groups just using holding corporations to place structures in enemy space.
Implementing these proposals means that system sieges could actually mean something. Imagine if all your citadels could be shut down because the enemy controls your space! Wouldn’t that be some high-stakes excitement, compared to the boring “who gives a crap if we lose space” attitude prominent in FW groups nowadays?
It is also worth noting that not ALL of lowsec is in the FW warzone, so there are plenty of places for industry groups, pirates, etc. to go other than the warzone. If FW is made more dynamic with VP changes, the warzone could also conceivably be reduced in size (with more becoming a specific empire’s space permanently) to allow for non-FW content to thrive in those areas as well.

II. Make stationary mega-blocs less viable in the long-term, especially those utilizing botting.

The idea of a Delve-hour is a cancerous lesion upon the entire EVE community: one group (admittedly through its own trials and tribulations) has a near-impenetrable region of space that produces massive amounts of resources, industrial products, and NPC bounties in quantities that rival or even dwarf trade hubs on a monthly basis. And the real kicker is: the more they harvest, the more they farm, the more they grind, the more resources, rats, and grindrs are available to them. Thus, their wealth creates a positive feedback loop that ensures that no one will ever truly be able to compete with them. This situation is certainly not unique to Goonswarm Federation (and I do not bear them, nor Snuff, nor any other group ill will for exploiting the game mechanic in their favor) but it is not long-term sustainable if CCP wishes to attract new players. Additionally, trillions upon trillions of ISK every month are generated through botting (or just plain AFKing) with VNI ratting in near-untouchable space with vast intel networks (galaxy-wide, obviously not just in Delve). Thus, I propose two changes, one relatively minor that may (or may not) help with dealing with the VNI’s bullshit, and one that would fundamentally alter (read: break) the structure of the game forever.
  1. Make VNI ratting take literally any conscious effort: I know, this is a pretty low bar to set, but even some really stupidly simple changes like increased drone aggro against drone boats by rats and removing the drone “aggressive” auto-attack means that people (or bots, let’s be real) would actually have to put SOME effort into ratting. In any ship other than a drone boat, a player has to make a conscious choice to engage each enemy, depleting ammunition, reloading, maintaining appropriate range. In VNIs, all of that is done for you automatically: no ammo is depleted, you never have to reload, you just need to orbit a rock prop-on and go cook dinner while the money pours in. Now, in fairness, these changes could discourage real players from ratting while not really addressing the core issue of botters, but people just printing money with 0 actual game inputs seems incredibly brokento me.
  2. Resource Depletion and Scarcity: This is arguably the worst, best, least viable, and most interesting suggestion I have for this post. It was spurred by two stimuli: Firstly, a discussion I had with a friend about how good of an economic simulator EVE is. For those who have never taken economics, the entire field is more or less predicated on two assumptions: that people will generally act in a way that serves their self-interest and that resources are scarce. The first assumption holds up pretty well in EVE, but the second fails massively because asteroid belts respawn every day after downtime in the same place with the same amounts of minerals; the more ore you mine in null sec, the MORE ore anomalies spawn; the more NPC pirate rats you kill for their bounties, the more show up in your system. That doesn’t seem… quite right. (Yes, I know it is ostensibly to "reward" groups for being active in their space, but should there be no limit to that?) The second factor that pushed me to make this suggestion was actual flavor text from the game itself, specifically the one for “Small Asteroid Cluster” anomalies: “In the past, scientists shared their concerns about an overall reduction in the supply of raw resources, but in recent times, the discovery of additional ore in unknown sectors of space has alleviated this anxiety.” CCP literally has written into the game that scarcity could become a real thing! What if rorqual mining a system for months at a time actually depleted its resources? What if money moons gradually became less money (while other moons gradually improved if not drilled regularly)? What if killing off thousands upon thousands of pirates actually weakened their cartel in that sector of space? What if PI depleted planetary resources not just in one area of a planet, but across the entire planet for an extended period of time? Well, if that happened, groups that consume massive amounts of resources would need to move, conquering space from other groups. All of a sudden, groups would not just be able to sit under their cyno jammers and super umbrellas making massive piles of cash, reacting enormous stockpiles of moon goo, and killing infinite numbers of rats: they would have to scout and seize the more desirable space from their enemies. In one fell swoop, we could have a more realistic EVE economy, discourage turtling, and encourage actual engagements (as opposed to the “war” Legacy/Fraternity have had going for a couple months, where no meaningful structures were destroyed or space changed hands because everyone is too risk-averse to commit). Because the defenders have a tactical advantage against invaders, introducing scarcity would also give smaller groups at least somewhat of a boost in the face of groups slightly larger than they. On top of all that, the EVE economy would more accurately reflect the reality of meatspace economies and resource-gathering. Could new gameplay opportunities or strategies be opened up by the depletion of Delve money moons or PI planets, just as depletion of petroleum oil supplies has (somewhat) allowed for the expansion of solar, wind, geothermal, and other power sources in meatspace? Maybe! Who knows what strategies we could see EVE players develop in the face of this new challenge (which is, in reality, the oldest challenge humanity has faced for tens of thousands of years).
NOW, there are several big problems with this change, most notably that someone who is super rich could just stockpile massive amounts of resources, then use the skyrocketing prices to make mad bank, but honestly, I think that it would be a fascinating development, if not necessarily one that would make a lot of players happy.

III. Random Bullshit/Quality of Life Improvements

Gonna keep this short because my other sections are WAY too long.
  1. Fix Corp/Alliance/ACL Titles, roles, and general management: Dear gods, what a fustercluck these are. I know, I know, someone is going to scream “Legacy code!!!” at me, as if TAPI had teamed up with James 315, but after 16 years, that excuse starts to sound a bit old. Setting corp and alliance permissions in these is a confounding nightmare.
  2. Event and Giveaway buttons on sidebar: Jesus Christ, can we get rid of these, or at least make them removable? There are already massive ads/popups for them on the launcher and login screen! Stop pushing my Fitting Management button off my neocom, you shits!
  3. Insurance adjustments: This is the most minor of pet peeves, but every single month, an economic report comes out that shows that there is at least two times as much ISK paid out in insurance money as is paid into the insurance system. As someone who has known actuaries and insurance professionals all my life, this annoys the hell out of me. Honestly, Pend Insurance should just stop insuring capsuleers; they’d save so much money! I think it would be really interesting if CCP implemented some sort of monthly check: if insurance payouts exceed insurance contributions for that month, then future insurance payouts are cumulatively reduced by 10% across the board (maybe weighted so that insurance for larger ships is reduced by a greater amount and insurance for smaller ships reduced less to make it more friendly for new players who can’t afford to lose as much). CCP can then continue to do this every month that insurance payouts continue to be too damn high, until the relative amounts are more reasonable. Payouts can also be adjusted UP if contributions are substantially higher than payouts. *GASP* an actual economic equilibrium? Who woulda thunk? Having insurance act as a net ISK faucet is both dumb from an economic standpoint and silly from a game-design standpoint.

Conclusions

Anyway, those are some of my extremely terrible, horrible, no good, very bad ideas for the future of EVE that could make the game more compelling for new players, which I mainly bring up as points of discussion for my fellow players, rather than as serious proposals. I fully expect that a whopping zero of them will ever be implemented because many would frustrate the existing paying player base or just be too much effort to address something that CCP doesn’t really care about addressing since they are focused on other matters. I don’t mean to shit on CCP for having such a focus: the Triglavian stuff is pretty cool, and I like that there’s more lore things happening lately… but it’s a shame that the number of viable play-styles in EVE has been reduced so drastically because of lack of attention on their part.
submitted by alquimistablanco to Eve [link] [comments]

ELI5: How do insurance companies make money? Who insures insurance companies?

If I pay $150/month and total my car after 12 months, I've only paid in $1800, yet I will get back ~$10,000 (depending on the vehicle, of course). How do insurance companies make a profit from that, and how are said companies insured? Can they insure themselves? Who do they pay? Wouldn't it be like writing a check to yourself? Also, how do people start up their own insurance companies?
submitted by ShieldProductions to explainlikeimfive [link] [comments]

Player/Streamer Owned Poker Room Idea

I'm not a big Reddit user but this seemed like a very Reddit idea, so forgive any faux pas.
To start, Michigan has a law where charities can hold 'millionaire parties' and gamble - including poker. The way the law is structured charities can rent everything they need from a licensed supplier. There are now like 50 venues across the state wherein charities rent the room, tables, chairs, chips, dealers, cards, etc from the business for a flat fee, then the charity gets 100% of the rake. There was a moratorium on these rooms some time ago but I saw one open in 2018 and that got my wheels turning.
My context which can be skipped: I'm a 32yo actuary, business owner, and rec player with lots of experience. I played a lot in college and did well at a native casino and some of these Flint poker rooms playing 6/12 limit & 1/2nl which played more like 2/5 with straddles on. That said, although I can generally clean up really weak games and max out profits on good runs, I'm not a 'good' player anymore - I get a little loose, pay too much for draws especially after about 3-4 hours of play if I'm grinding or stuck, and overvalue premium hands post-flop. I had a good run in December 18 and January of this year at 2/5 games in Detroit, and decided I wanted to re-establish a bankroll and improve my play. So for the first time in the dawn of YouTube, I discovered poker vlogs.
The basic idea would be to create a studio table ala Live at the Bike somewhere in Michigan (or other state where opening a poker room isn't illegal) near an airport in an invite-only poker room. Who's invited? The people that own the room, and people that live stream.
At the outset, shares in the business are offered at *$100 each. With at least *500 shares sold that's *$50,000 which would be *enough to get the most barebones 6 table room open with no studio table. The short term goal would be to generate enough of a rake to be able to charge charities *$1,000/night average, 4 nights out of the week. (Each charity can do this 4 times per year, so we'd just set them up with 4-day blocks including Friday and Saturday, so the charge would be *$4,000 for the week. My guess is a full table generates *$60-100/hour, taking *$50 as a low estimate, times 6 tables full for 8 hours on Fri & Saturday, and 3 full tables on the other two days totals *$7,500. So the pitch to charities is that they pay *$4,000, but the invoice isn't due until closing time after 4 days, so really they just get *$3,500 free dollars. Notice that in this scenario half of the rake is returning to the club, which is where being an owner of the room makes sense.
Staff would be compensated with shares in the company and would just rely on tips at the outset. I think since they'd be owners min wage laws wouldn't apply. Even with min wage the math still works out. The *$16,000 in monthly revenue would leave enough left over after rent and other expenses to begin building out the studio.
To prevent early struggles from hampering progress, owner-members would be obligated/entitled to a *membership fee / *dividend, calculated *quarterly, which would start at *$0 and increase to as high as maybe *$25/share/quarter in the case of a slow start. Assuming revenues cover costs the dividend would remain *$0 for several years as profit would be reinvested and added value would be reflected in share price rather than paid out. Once it became clear that the room was capturing all the business it could, the dividend would begin.
Studio/Streaming component:
I'm well aware that the revenue generated from this component would not be significant, but the player-owned model would be a lot more sustainable with an extra draw and the free/profitable advertising ability. Attracting streamers for meetup games would mean great business too. It would be a tremendous draw for people that want to get into vlogging because owners regularly playing on the stream would be able to cut videos with little/none of their own equipment. Could even open the studio on off days for an owner for $30/hour including an engineer to shoot and cut a video for them including vids from an earlier live stream so they literally need nothing to start a vlog and can just focus on playing.
So yeah. That's my half of an idea.
Edit: If I were to do this it would be in Detroit or metro Detroit closer to the airport. The downtown area has come back tremendously and there would be plenty of interested players.
*I do already own a business so I'm not unaware of all the hurdles and areas in which the above plan is lacking details. I'm 1000% positive many comments will insist on how stupidly unrealistic this is because blah blah blah. All of my numbers are educated guesses based on my business & poker knowledge which I just inserted here as placeholders to an actual business plan that I never intend to flesh out. The idea here is to convey one idea for the basis of creating such a model. If someone else wanted to do this in Michigan near Detroit I would join, but I have no plans of doing this myself so please do not issue any corrections to numbers or warnings that business is risky and that my numbers are unrealistic or whatever else. I am aware.
submitted by DirkDudley to poker [link] [comments]

Numerical, A-C 10k-50k

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Emerging Risks Survey Findings

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